智通财经APP获悉，水泥股集体回落，截至发稿，金隅集团(02009)跌5%，报0.76港元；海螺水泥(00914)跌4.83%，报18.92港元；华润建材科技(01313)跌3.14%，报1.54港元；华新水泥(06655)跌1.79%，报7.69港元。
光大证券指出，2024年前11月，全国水泥产量同比-10%，主要受基建地产需求下行拖累。24年前三季度，华东区域水泥价格持续下行，对区域内多家企业盈利水平造成较大压力，24Q4提价成功后预计单季度利润将出现明显改善。在此背景下，预计25年各家企业挺价意愿仍会较为强烈，判断25年全年均价同比将出现较大幅度提升。
天风证券发布研报称，25年受益于基建实物工作量的推进以及地产新建端的筑底，水泥需求降幅有望收窄，而供给侧将逐渐发力，短期来看，错峰生产仍是调节供需平衡最有效的手段，25年随着限制超产政策的逐步趋严，倒闭企业通过补足超产指标等方式退出中小产能，行业有望开始实现真正意义上的产能出清，而2027年开始将进入碳交易深化完善阶段，行业产能优化效果有望进一步显现。
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