金吾财讯 | 基建股集体承压，中国中铁(00390)跌3.54%，时代电气(03898)跌3.35%，中国交通建设(01800)跌3.1%，中国中冶(01618)跌3.05%，中国通号(03969)跌2.88%，中国中车(01766)跌2.79%。
国信证券表示，建筑行业下游需求下滑，建筑企业新签订单减少，产值增长放缓，龙头央企依靠较低的融资成本抢占市场份额，民营企业收入业绩持续下滑。由于工程回款情况恶化，营业收入在资产负债表中以各种形式存在的应收款项资产持续累积，导致建筑企业“被动扩表”。在下游客户回款付款不佳和政策要求清理民营企业账款的共同作用下，当前国资总承包商在收款和付款两端均面临较大压力，现金流出压力显著增加。
该行指，房地产投资持续下行，由于销售低迷，地产新开工大幅下滑，导致房屋施工面积持续下行，预计2025年新增投资仍然偏弱，房建工程投资额同比-7.7%。受制于地方债务风险管控、专项债缺项目等问题，基建投资持续走弱，新开工投资额大幅下滑，在建项目显著减少，预测2025年狭义基建投资-3.3%。制造业投资相对更具韧性，工业库存周期正由被动去库存正在逐步转向主动补库存，随着下游需求复苏，工业扩产需求将推动制造业投资增长。
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