金吾财讯 | 华泰证券发研指，1月1日高鑫零售(06808)发布公告，要约方Paragon Shine Limited已订立买卖协议，有条件向阿里巴巴(09988)子公司及New Retail收购75.08亿股高鑫零售股份，占公司已发行股本78.70%。本次股权交易买方为资深另类资产管理机构，具备丰富消费品行业投资经验，或助力公司经营调优更进一步，关注后续进展。该行指，高鑫新管理层执掌以来，经营转型成效逐步显现，性价比SKU矩阵提振客流；中超二代店型迭代，部分指标转正且成为增长抓手；会员店持续打磨商品供应链；叠加总部严格控费，1HFY25净利润同比转正至2.1亿元。本次股权交易的交割期限为25年9月30日，需取得市场监管总局批准，落地后公司团队有望稳定军心，继续推进各项转型措施，推动盈利能力稳步向好。该行表示，维持25-27财年归母净利预测4.0/5.0/6.6亿元，可比公司平均25年74xPE，考虑可比公司高估值中含永辉（胖东来模式催化股价），给予公司26财年47xPE，目标价2.60港元（前值1.82港元，基于25财年40xPE），上调幅度较大因隐含转型措施显效、盈利向好及收购方潜在协同。维持“增持”评级。
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