The latest Market Talks covering Commodities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

0853 ET - U.S. natural gas futures are lower after yesterday's hefty gains in a limited retreat as below-average temperatures in much of the U.S. drive strong heating demand. "Below normal trends established broadly across the eastern half of the U.S. remain price supportive in suggesting one more price upswing before this week is out," Ritterbusch says in a note. Wednesday's EIA storage report is expected to show a below-normal withdrawal for last week due in part to the New Year holiday, but "we look for trader focus to be mainly fixed on several sizable storage draws beyond this week that will be shrinking the surplus appreciably," Ritterbusch adds. The Nymex front month is off 3.8% at $3.531/mmBtu. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

0726 ET - Metal prices rise, with LME three-month copper up 0.3% at $8,994 a metric ton and LME three-month aluminum up 0.7% at $2,509 a metric ton. The economic policy of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump will keep the commodity markets busy and cause a lot of volatility, Commerzbank analysts say in a note. Reports that tariff increases are to be limited to so-called critical goods saw copper prices spike, before falling again following Trump's denial of the claims, Commerzbank says. Previously, disappointing purchasing managers' indices from China, among other factors, had kept copper prices suppressed. Nevertheless, copper has managed to hold relatively steady around the $9,000 a ton mark, probably reflecting market hopes that things may not turn out quite so badly after all, Commerzbank adds. (joseph.hoppe@wsj.com)

0711 ET - Gold futures rise as China boosts its gold reserves for the second consecutive month. Futures are up 0.45% at $2,659.30 a troy ounce. The People's Bank of China bullion reserve rose to 73.3 million ounces in December, from 73 million ounces in November, SP Angel analysts say. The bank--which had paused purchases in the six months to November--was a key driver behind gold's significant rise on-year, and the return to buying is an encouraging sign, the analysts say in a note. Gold traders are likely in for a volatile week, with U.S. labor data due Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday. A series of softer labor prints could help propel gold prices higher, SP Angel says. Softer economic data could prompt the Federal Reserve to loosen monetary policy, boosting non-interest bearing bullion's appeal. (joseph.hoppe@wsj.com)

0522 ET - Metal prices rise, with LME three-month copper up 0.6% at $9,021 a metric ton and LME three-month aluminum up 0.7% at $2,509.50 a ton. Copper prices are very vulnerable to global macroeconomic events, though the market should enter a deficit from the end of 2025, which would boost prices, Deutsche Bank analysts say in a note. The industrial metal's prices were volatile last year, though they ended 2024 up just 7%--broadly reflecting a moribund real-estate sector in China. Deutsche Bank sees copper steadily rising over 2025 to $9,800 a ton by the final quarter of the year. Market focus this year will be firmly fixed on China for fresh catalysts, particularly on potential fiscal stimulus measures to boost the property sector. (joseph.hoppe@wsj.com)

0520 ET - Palm oil closed slightly higher as traders await official data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board due Friday. Data from the Southern Peninsular Palm Oil Millers Association showed a notable 12% on-month drop in December palm oil production in Malaysia, Phillip Nova analyst Lim Tai An said in a research note. Meanwhile, investor sentiment may still be weighed by the execution of Indonesia's biodiesel mandate in the short term, Lim said. "The market remains cautious due to lingering concerns over regulatory issues, funding challenges, and logistical hurdles," he added. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for March delivery ended 35 ringgit higher at 4,373 ringgit a ton. (sherry.qin@wsj.com)

0423 ET - Gold futures rise, though they remain broadly rangebound in thin trading. Futures are up 0.2% at $2,652.0 a troy ounce. Gold's gains may be modest in recent weeks but increased buying flows are likely to come, as investors seek portfolio protection from incoming tariff hostilities, says Pepperstone's Chris Weston. While U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's proposed tariffs are firmly priced into the market, the size and scope of counter-responses and retaliatory measures are less clear, Weston says in a note. Canada could preannounce a list of U.S. goods that will face retaliatory tariffs and China is doubtless preparing for the worst, Weston says. While it remains to be seen how each party ultimately reacts, it could create a new level of noise and uncertainty that could see higher market volatility and push gold back toward $2,800, he adds. (joseph.hoppe@wsj.com)

0408 ET - Oil prices edge lower likely due to a technical correction and weaker global economic news, but are still supported by colder weather forecasts and concerns over Russian and Iranian supply. Brent crude is down 0.4% to $75.96 a barrel, while WTI falls 0.5% to $73.16 a barrel. Both benchmarks settled lower on Monday, ending a five-session winning streak after orders for U.S. manufactured goods fell in November and German inflation rose further above the European Central Bank's target. "The move higher in crude oil prices appears to be running out of momentum," ING analysts say in a note. "While there has been some tightening in the physical market, fundamentals through 2025 are still set to be comfortable, which should cap the upside." (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

0015 ET - There's a mixed picture for base metals prices in the months ahead, according to Morgan Stanley analysts. "Into Q2, we see upside to copper and zinc prices, are more neutral on nickel and aluminum, and are cautious on lead," the analysts say in a note. For copper and zinc, tight supplies of concentrate are expected to keep a lid on refined metal production, say the analysts. For nickel, the supply outlook hinges on policy in Indonesia. In that market, "the balance could tighten meaningfully if we don't see additional quotas," they say. The lead market is likely to record a surplus in 2025, after a likely surplus last year, they say. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

2159 ET - Road construction has slowed right down in China, a bearish sign for metals demand. "Fixed asset investment $(FAI)$ in China is one of the two key drivers of global metals demand (the other being Chinese property construction) and road construction is the largest component of FAI," Citi analysts say in a note. Spending on roads, historically steadier than spending on rail or power, has been slower than overall FAI for the past eight quarters and is now contracting, say the analysts. "If contractor order intake starts picking up from next quarter onwards, it will be positive for sentiment," they say. "But the impact on underlying metal demand from infrastructure will likely be seen only from FY25 onwards." (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

2155 ET - Iron ore prices are lower in early Asian trading amid subdued prospects for macroeconomic policy. Countries other than the U.S. are facing capital outflows and economic pressure amid a strong dollar, Nanhua Futures says in a research note. Meanwhile, China has yet to cut banks' reserve-requirement ratio, it says. The Fed's slower easing pace has likely limited Chinese monetary policy options, Nanhua notes. A weak macro environment weighs on the commodities market. Sentiment is expected to remain soft until Donald Trump takes office, it adds. The most-traded iron ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange is down 1.6% at CNY748.5 a ton.(sherry.qin@wsj.com)

2144 ET - Palm oil prices fall in early Asian trading, tracking overnight gains in soybean oil on the Chicago Board of Trade, says David Ng, a trader at Kuala Lumpur-based proprietary trading company Iceberg X. Palm olein's softness on the Dalian Commodity Exchange adds pressure on palm oil, he notes, adding the downtrend could be cushioned by strong fundamentals with weaker production output and likely lower stock levels in Malaysia. Ng sees support for CPO futures at MYR4,250/ton and resistance at MYR4,450/ton. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for March delivery is down MYR31 at MYR4,307/ton. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for March delivery closed MYR41 higher at MYR4,374 on Jan. 3. "Palm Oil Rises With More Clarity on Indonesia's Biodiesel Program -- Market Talk," at 1009 GMT on Jan. 3, incorrectly said the contract closed lower.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

January 07, 2025 09:15 ET (14:15 GMT)

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