Scotiabank provides the timelines and the implications for the Canadian federal budget and the response to possible United States tariffs.

Parliament has been prorogued until March 24 which puts a stop to any further legislative actions, wrote the bank in a note to clients.

Technically parliament could be prorogued again, extending parliament's suspension as explained. That has happened before, such as in 1961, and former Prime Minister Jean Chretien prorogued for over a year. If the Libs aren't ready and or if exigent circumstances -- like tariff wars --necessitate, then all of these timelines could well be pushed out.

A confidence vote is likely to be held after March 24 if parliament reconvenes, stated Scotiabank. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said so Monday in his resignation speech and there is the previous NDP commitment to hold a vote on their support on March 28 unless they back down, so the bank expects a vote any time from March 24 to 31.

The government is very likely to fall at that point, so triggering a writ of election, pointed out the bank.

The election campaign must be between 37 and 51 days long, meaning that the election would be held sometime between the very end of April and May 21. Barring serial prorogation that would probably only impose further damage upon the Liberal Party's prospects, a spring election is highly likely and so well before the October "semi-deadline," added Scotiabank.

If polling is accurate, then Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre is very likely to become the next PM, noted the bank. That could change over the months ahead either because of developments or huge polling inaccuracies, but there is a very high bar set against an alternative outcome at this point.

The key then becomes what a Conservative election platform would look like. It's not well laid out right now with mostly generalities to go by. It's a grassroots, populist form of a Conservative Party not particularly well aligned with the interests of big business and closer to labor and particularly organized labor. It could be that the Conservatives will wait until they see the outcome of the Liberal leadership contest before more fully informing Canadians about concrete policy measures that they would pursue rather than just general talk about more efficiency and better growth.

That's because some of the candidates could differ markedly from one another in terms of their policy bias. At present, however, all of the potential Liberal leadership candidates would lose to the Conservatives in a sample poll, according to Scotiabank.

What this period will do is put on ice a federal budget until some time after an election and so no earlier than summer. Canada can still respond effectively to US tariff threats. That doesn't require parliament.

It didn't in the earlier episode. In fact, there is some consideration being given toward pre-emptively spelling out what Canada would target in retaliatory tariffs.