【烧碱05合约大幅升水现货下，继续上涨的空间或将有限】金十期货1月6日讯，烧碱主力合约早盘走高，日内涨超2%。中泰期货表示，烧碱盘面近远月走势分化。近月合约主要走弱现实逻辑，冬季是烧碱的供给旺季，装置检修较少，开工率处于高位水平，产量增加。需求端主力下游氧化铝采购量减少，而部分非铝下游处于淡季，需求明显走弱，叠加主力下游氧化铝厂采购价持续下调，带动近月盘面走弱。远月合约主要走强预期逻辑，2025年氧化铝有较多产能投产，叠加烧碱的春季检修，年后烧碱或有阶段性供需错配导致的价格上涨，因此远月大幅走强。短期远月逻辑不易证伪，但05合约大幅升水现货下，继续上涨的空间或将有限，不易过度追涨。
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