金吾财讯 | 摩根士丹利发研报指，中通快递(ZTO)此前被列为分析师首选股，现被该行移除该行列。摩根士丹利预计其2024-2026年快递业务量增长率分别为12.2%、17.0%、15.4%，平均售价(ASP)增长率为1.0%、-3.6%、-1.2%，单位成本增长率为-0.8%、-1.1%、-1.5%。2024年预计营收433.732亿元人民币，EBITDA为142.52亿元人民币，净利润为102.12亿元人民币，EPS为1.22元人民币。该行表示，2025年快递行业可能面临通缩压力和消费增长放缓的压力，行业营收增长会受到持续影响，进而影响中通作为高质量快递服务提供商的定价能力。尽管行业有机整合仍有可能带来盈利提升和重新评级的机会，但监管方面存在一些不确定性。该行认为中通2025年将优先争夺市场份额，宏观逆风可能促使行业整合，现金股息(40%派息率)和股票回购将支撑估值，但仍面临如小快递公司扩张引发价格竞争、市场量增长低于预期、市场整合停滞等下行风险，对中通快递给出22.90美元的目标价，评级从“增持”调整为“中性”。
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