金吾财讯 | 内房股普遍走低，融创中国(01918)跌12.56%，融信中国(03301)跌9.86%，远洋集团(03377)跌8.68%，世茂集团(00813)跌5.88%，富力地产(02777)跌4.55%，雅居乐集团(03383)跌4.29%。克而瑞地产研究发文称，1月供应季节性回落，环比“腰斩”，整体推盘热情“比上不足比下有余”，略好于2024年和2022年春节同期，不过与2023年春节月相比仍有差距。从供给结构来看，重点城市刚需、改善、高端占比结构为37%、53%和10%，呈现出以改善为主，刚需为辅的供应结构。6成以上城市以主城为供应主力。预判后市，该团队认为，开年整体成交大概率呈现季节性回落，环比持降，同比降幅或有持续收窄态势。瑞银发表内房股报告，预期多项去年趋势于今年持续，包括二手房销售占比增加，租务市场重要性上升，高端商场持续面对挑战，中国房托在低息下崛起，以及政策对内地房市与内房股的影响力下降。该行并料内房今年去库存趋势持续。该行预期今年新落成住宅销售面积及新动工分别按年跌10%及15%，一线城市房价按年跌10%。该行最新的库存模型显示去库存或于明年中完成，早于原来预期的明年第三季，受惠于近期政策刺激。
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