The latest Market Talks covering Commodities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

1526 ET - Lean hog futures close down 1.4% to 80 cents a pound, making it the eighth-straight trading session that lean hog futures have finished lower. That makes it 9% that lean hogs have declined since that streak began, and more sales are expected to come soon. "Managed money long liquidation is upon us, and we'll have a (delayed) commitment of traders report out later this afternoon to give us an update on their status," StoneX says in a note. "Open interest continues to drain out of lean hog futures at a fairly rapid clip as a result." Cattle futures rose 0.7% for the day, to a new record-high of $1.96 a pound. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1506 ET - Oil futures give up early gains and settle lower, ending a five-session winning streak. Prices turned around after rising early on a combination of a weaker dollar, cold weather in the U.S., and Saudi Arabia raising its official selling price for February. "There is no smoking gun headline justifying the slide in oil prices, though the Trump tariff 'will he or wont he' issue is being fingered as a bearish vibe by some," Mizuho's Robert Yawger says in a note. "But the speculative nature of the rally versus rather bearish fundamentals leaves price action vulnerable to sudden starts and stops." WTI settles down 0.5% at $73.56 a barrel, and Brent slips 0.3% to $76.30 a barrel. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1458 ET - U.S. natural gas futures bounce back from Friday's losses as strong weather-driven demand is seen extending well beyond mid-January, and LNG exports remain buoyant. "The cold has been enough to not only boost demand but also affect the available supply of natural gas as well, with production data over the weekend indicating freeze-offs in Appalachia," Gelber & Associates says in a note. "Recent price action continues to serve as a reminder to market participants why the winter risk premium exists in natural gas, with volatility persistently high as front-month gas retained much of its late-December rally to trade at its highest prices in two years." The Nymex front-month settles up 10% at $3.701/Btu. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1430 ET - Front-month gold finished lower for the second straight session, with investors seen as directing more of their resources towards Treasury notes than gold. "Safe haven flows are gravitating to yield and with the situation likely to accelerate as the 5.0000% level comes into focus," says Robert Yawger of Mizuho Securities USA in a note. The U.S. dollar index pared losses this morning after President-elect Trump denied reports that his administration is considering a watered-down tariff policy. Even so, the dollar index remained lower for the day, down 0.6%. Front-month gold finished down 0.3% to $2,638.40 an ounce. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1310 ET - Expectations for drought conditions in much of Argentina's crop-growing area are beginning to recede, says Daniel Flynn of Price Futures Group in a note. "The ensemble forecast models indicate the Argentine dryness will shrink following mid-January with the forecast calling for rain across southern and western provinces," Flynn says. "This would help 30-40% off all Argentine crop area, but a widespread drought is becoming less likely." The potential for drought in Argentina has given traders a reason to bid futures higher in recent sessions, this as Argentine farmers have been planting corn and soybeans -- and farmers have the opportunity to replenish any crops affected by dryness. "Crops with poor stands can be replanted without yield loss if needed," Flynn says. Most-active CBOT grain futures are higher. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1240 ET - Today's reversal from Friday's selling comes as traders look ahead to Friday's WASDE report from the USDA -- with the potential for a market-shaking surprise not lost on traders. "Friday's grain market sell-off did feel a bit harsh and prices are rebounding this morning in turn; there's too much at stake in terms of potential fundamental surprises on Friday to make a major pre-USDA move either way," says Matt Zeller of StoneX in a note. "The January USDA Report date brings not only the usual monthly revisions, but 'final' annual U.S. crop production, key December 1 grain stocks, and winter wheat seedings, among others." Most-active corn on the CBOT is up 1.5%, soybeans are up 0.9%, and wheat is up 2.1%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1159 ET - Gold futures drop slightly, but prices keep trading in a narrow range. Futures fall 0.1% to $2,651.50 a troy ounce. The precious metal has been broadly rangebound in recent months, as higher central bank demand offset weaker speculative demand, Goldman Sachs analysts say in a note. Goldman pushes back its estimate for gold prices to hit $3,000 a troy ounce to the second quarter of 2026, from December 2025. This largely reflects expectations of just 75 basis points of U.S. interest rate cuts over 2025, from 100 basis points previously, Goldman says. Higher interest rates for longer typically damp the appeal of non-interest bearing gold. The Federal Reserve's pathway towards monetary policy easing remains the main risk to gold price upside, Goldman adds. (joseph.hoppe@wsj.com)

1159 ET - Metal prices are mixed, with LME three-month copper up 1.2% at $9,003.0 a metric ton and LME three-month aluminum flat at $2,495.50 a ton in relatively thin trading. Industrial metals have posted some gains on year, with copper and aluminum up around 7% and 10% respectively, though tepid China demand has weighed on metal prices, particularly due to the real-estate sector contraction, HSBC analysts say in a note. Market attention for the new year is now fixed on China for fresh catalysts, especially the size and scope of potential fiscal stimulus to kickstart the country's moribund property sector. LME three-month zinc gains 0.2% to $2,898 a ton. (joseph.hoppe@wsj.com)

1127 ET - Live cattle futures on the CME climb to record territory as freezing temperatures in cattle-ranching areas are impacting the ability of cattle to graze and affecting their typical weight gains in an effort to stay warm. The most-active contract is up 0.7% to $1.9535 a pound, which would mark a new all-time high if it closes at this level. But analysts are beginning to wonder for how long cattle futures can continue to rally. "The market struggled to sustain the rally on Friday," says AgResource in a note. "Cattle futures are overbought, and the cash market has gained $15 in 7 weeks." Lean hogs are down 1.4%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1101 ET - The prospect of an early election in Canada and shift in power to a Conservative government would benefit the local currency, Macquarie strategists Thierry Wizman and Gareth Berry say. The pair are more bullish CAD, arguing a resignation by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau would help move things along. Already CAD has made moves higher after reports Trudeau will soon announce he is stepping down and after polls continue to show the Conservatives carry sizeable support with voters. Macquarie says that if things pan out as expected, USD/CAD and EUR/CAD will lower by roughly 3%-4% respectively by end-1Q, and it no longer believes that 1.44 is the "center of gravity" for USD/CAD in 2025. (robb.stewart@wsj.com)

1052 ET - Commodity futures are mostly higher in reaction to a story from the Washington Post that said that potential tariff measures from the incoming Trump Administration may be more narrow than initially expected. This prompted Trump to respond via his Truth Social account, where he said that "the story in the Washington Post, quoting so-called anonymous sources, which don't exist, incorrectly states that my tariff policy will be pared back… that is wrong." The U.S. dollar index remains down for the day since Trump's rebuke, although it's bounced back from initial selling -- with the index now down 0.5%. A lower dollar tends to support commodity futures, making export sales more competitive. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1046 ET - Trump denies on social-media that tariffs will be pared back, which gives some strength to the U.S. dollar. The greenback remains weaker versus most major currencies, but is off early lows. The Washington Post reported that tariffs could be limited to critical imports, citing people familiar with the matter. Trump, on Truth Social, denied the report. The WSJ Dollar Index, which was down nearly 1% on the Post article, recovered after Trump's response and now falls 0.4%. The greenback weakens around 0.7% versus the euro and the pound and rises 0.2% versus the yen.(paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

January 06, 2025 16:15 ET (21:15 GMT)

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