智通财经APP获悉，恒生银行(00011)经济研究部主管兼首席经济师薛俊升出席香港信保局主办的2025环球经济与香港出口展望研讨会时表示，去年高息环境下市场气氛不理想，今年踏入减息周期，环球主要央行相继减息，美国通胀回落，为央行放宽政策提供空间。
薛俊升指，美联储审慎行事，市场估计美国利率缓慢下降，高息影响下令经济需求减弱。
他认为，美联储今年不会如市场预期只减息2次，预期有机会减息3至4次，每次25点。
他指出，美国关税措施受到关注，香港出口环境仍然会比较艰难，具挑战性，但强调内地出口仍然有竞争力，根据过往加关税后的表现，内地货物出口占全球市场份额不跌反升，所以对今年内地出口不完全悲观。
香港方面，可望受惠于美国减息及内地经济回稳。利率是一项正面因素，香港银行利率跟随美国减息而回落，利好企业和市民。旅游业持续复苏，去年访港旅客人次高于疫情前，正面因素有待反映，相信今年与去年情况相近。
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