The latest Market Talks covering Financial Services. Exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires at 4:20 ET, 12:20 ET and 16:50 ET.

1059 ET - Buffalo, New York, is set to be the hottest housing market in 2025, according to Zillow, the first time a market has repeated the title in back-to-back years. Factors include affordability, limited inventory, and high job growth relative to new homes. The ranking considers home value growth forecasts, sales speed, job creation, and expected increases in homeowner households. Buffalo's market was hot in 2024, with sellers holding negotiation power. Zillow says hot markets spread from the Northeast, Great Lakes and South regions into the Midwest and West. Virginia Beach jumped farthest up Zillow's list from 2024, leapfrogging over 23 markets. (chris.wack@wsj.com)

1046 ET - Banco BPM's shares trade around 16% above the price indicated in UniCredit's takeover offer, which should lead to a revision of terms, JP Morgan says in a research note. Analysts see UniCredit offering an up to 20% premium--or 9.3 euros per BPM share--against the original offer's 6.657 euros which represented a 15% premium. UniCredit could now sweeten the bid--which BPM has rejected--with up to 4 billion euros in cash to protect earnings per share accretion, the analysts say. UniCredit is balancing several considerations: its common equity tier 1 capital ratio needs to be at least 13%, it wants to keep some capital for a potential Commerzbank acquisition after potentially integrating BPM, and it aims to continue offering an attractive shareholder payout ratio, they note. (elena.vardon@wsj.com)

1009 ET - Partners Group's assets under management, or AUM, growth in the next three years could outpace its European peers and be closer to the U.S. peer group average, UBS says in a research note. AUM growth is expected to be smooth and predictable in each of the years to 2027 as the company is well-placed to capture growth in the wealth management channel and with institutional allocators shifting to liquid and semi-liquid structures, the analysts write. The Swiss group has indicated that it is looking for targets in U.S. private credit, which UBS sees as a rational move that could also help accelerate AUM growth. UBS raises its rating on the stock to buy from neutral and its target price to 1,378 Swiss francs from 1,174 francs. Shares trade 3.1% higher at 1,300 francs. (elena.vardon@wsj.com)

0957 ET - Redfin reports that 34% of U.S. homeowners will never sell their home, with 27% not selling for at least 10 years. By generation, 43% of baby boomers, 34% of Gen X, and 28% of millennial/Gen Z homeowners say they'll never sell. Nearly two in five--39%--of homeowners who don't plan to sell anytime soon say it's because their home is almost or completely paid off. Another 37% simply like their homes, with no desire to move. Affordability issues also keep homeowners from selling. The just-because movers--those who just want a bigger or nicer house--are staying put, mostly because it's so expensive to buy a new house, Redfin says. The people who are selling are doing so because they need to.(chris.wack@wsj.com)

0331 ET - Close Brothers' announcement that its CFO Mike Morgan will permanently take on the CEO role allows for continuity, Shore Capital says in a research note. The merchant bank said that CEO Adrian Sainsbury, who had been on medical leave since September, won't be returning. "While the market could respond negatively to the permanent loss of Sainsbury, we think that bringing some certainty around the CEO role is a sensible decision by the board," analyst Gary Greenwood writes. This is particularly important given uncertainty surrounding current litigation within the U.K. motor finance market, to which the group is exposed, he adds. Shares fall 3.4% to 225 pence. (elena.vardon@wsj.com)

0253 ET - AJ Bell's growth could slow as its largest direct-to-customer competitor, Hargreaves Lansdown, is taken private this quarter and cuts its prices, Citi says in a research note. The U.K. investment platform is over-earning on client cash balances, which make up around 13% of direct-to-customer assets under administration, analysts write. "This is significantly higher than [direct-to-customer] peers and we believe that this inevitably will fall over time, driven by competitor offerings," the analysts write, noting that some platforms now offer cash sweeping. AJ Bell's revenues are highly exposed if this product is adopted more widely, they add. Citi cuts its rating on the stock to sell from neutral and trims its target price to 450 pence from 390 pence. Shares closed Monday at 452 pence. (elena.vardon@wsj.com)

0229 ET - Julius Baer's exit from one of the largest emerging markets raises some questions, Vontobel analysts write in a research note. The Swiss private banking group agreed to sell its domestic Brazilian wealth-management business to Banco BTG Pactual for $100.6 million in cash, mentioning the need to further enhance investment capabilities and upgrade technology. "The question remains why JB exits the domestic business of one of its focus markets in one of the largest emerging markets," they add. The group opened an office in Brazil in 2005 and bought two of the country's largest family offices, GPS and Reliance, merging the firms in February 2020. (najat.kantouar@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

January 07, 2025 12:20 ET (17:20 GMT)

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