金吾财讯 | 中国重汽(03808)逆市走强，截至发稿，涨4.30%，报23.05港元，成交额1.22亿港元。消息面上，国海证券发布研报称，重卡行业已走出2021年下半年开始的下行周期，回顾过去5年，行业经受住新冠疫情、供应链成本上涨、国五库存消化的负面冲击，尽管销量和企业盈利能力出现波动。但相比5年前，新市场的开拓进度、行业规范化、多种技术路线发展，以及企业产品竞争力皆显著提升。目前行业已经在低位运行3年半左右，国内市场均值向上回归，叠加出口市场继续稳增长，重卡销量将持续向上复苏。投资者应注意把握拐点向上的戴维斯双击机会。中泰国际指出，当前国内国四及以下排放标准的重卡保有量较高，以旧换新政策的实施有望进一步激发市场的增量需求。重卡行业正处于复苏初期，叠加出海机遇，预计2024-2025年公司重卡销量同比上升7.7%和7.4%，高于行业增速。预计2024-2025年公司收入965.9 亿和1,059.1 亿元，净利润60.7亿和69.3亿元。公司维持派息率50%，股息率约为5%-6%，属于高息股标的。
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