智通财经APP获悉,中国神华(01088)跌近5%,截至发稿,跌4.95%,报30.75港元,成交额6.74亿港元。
消息面上,1月8日,中国煤炭运销协会发布炼焦煤市场运行监测旬报称,进入2025年后,煤钢焦产业链运行未有起色,市场各环节对后市信心仍普遍缺乏,对原料采购持谨慎态度,资源冬储意愿不及往年,使得上下游的市场博弈进一步加剧,弱势品种承压较重。从焦煤供需形势看,在安监强化、市场下行的双重压力下,国有大矿利用假期主动控产成为现实,后续焦煤生产将进入阶段性的供应收缩期,供过于求的市场压力有望不再增大。
美银证券发布研报称,2025年看淡煤炭行业及中国神华,因料煤炭需求增长有限,且库存处于历史高位,并需面对持续的进口威胁。该行预计,今年的燃料煤价格为每吨720元人民币(同比跌16%),现货价格在第二季度至第三季度将低于合同价格,而焦煤价格为每吨1,400元人民币。
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