Lithium Americas (Argentina) (LAAC.TO) had its Sector Perform rating and US$4 target maintained by National Bank of Canada after 2024 production came in above guidance while 2025 guidance and updated life of mine costs came largely in line with the bank's estimates.
Lithium Americas Argentina produced about 25,400 tonnes lithium carbonate equivalent in 2024, above guidance of 20,000-25,000 LCE, the bank's estimate of 23,800 LCE and consensus estimate of 23,500 LCE.
Production averaged 85% of design capacity in the fourth quarter of 2024 with 8,500 LCE produced, well above the bank's estimate of 6,900 LCE and representing a 25% increase in output quarter over quarter.
For the full-year 2025, the company expects to produce 30,000-35,000 LCE, with the mid-range slightly above National Bank's estimate of 32,100 LCE and consensus estimate of 31,700 LCE.
The company also filed an updated technical report for its Cauchari-Olaroz lithium brine operation, with a revised long-term operating cost now estimated at US$6,543/t LCE, compared with the bank's estimate of $6,500. Life of mine sustaining capex is estimated at US$990 million, slightly below the bank's estimate of US$1.04 billion.
The overall updated after-tax net present value discounted at 8% for stage 1, using a lithium carbonate price of $20,757/t LCE, is $3.6 billion, above the bank's estimate of $3.2 billion at the same price.
National Bank continues to expect a negative free cash flow year in 2025, with 2026 being the first positive free cash flow year.
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