1 月 9 日，美国银行预计，出于对通胀的担忧，特朗普政府的激进关税可能会迫使美联储进入观望模式。
该银行的美国经济学家 Aditya Bhave 周三在给客户的一份报告中表示，“越来越多的迹象表明通胀呈上升趋势”，考虑到政府换届的时机，美联储可能已经完成了本周期的最后一次降息。
Bhave 表示，在考虑财政宽松或关税之前，通胀已经是一个令人担忧的问题。这些政策变化将对美联储的核心 PCE 预测构成上行风险（我们的预测是 2025 年底为 2.8%）。如果特朗普在就职后不久宣布征收高额的进口关税，美联储可能不会进一步降息。（金十）
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