J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. JBHT is scheduled to report fourth-quarter 2024 results on Jan. 16, after market close.

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JBHT has a disappointing earnings surprise history. The company’s earnings lagged the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the last four quarters (outpaced the mark in the remaining quarter), delivering an average miss of 10.86%.

Let’s see how things have shaped up for J.B. Hunt this earnings season.

Q4 Expectations for JBHT

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for J.B. Hunt’s fourth-quarter 2024 revenues is pegged at $3.15 billion, indicating a 4.6% decline year over year. The top line is likely to have been weighed down by weakness across the majority of its segments.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the fourth-quarter Intermodal revenues is pegged at $1.56 billion, indicating a 3.9% decline from the year-ago reported figure. The downside is likely to have been due to a decrease in volume and a decline in gross revenue per load, resulting from changes in customer rates, fuel surcharge revenues and the mix of freight. Our estimate is pegged at $1.57 billion.

The consensus mark for Dedicated Contract Services segment revenues is pegged at $860 million, implying a 2.7% decrease from the fourth-quarter 2023 reported number. The downside is likely to have been caused by a decline in average trucks and productivity (revenue per truck per week).Our estimate is pegged at $850.5 million.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Integrated Capacity Solutionsrevenues is pegged at $324 million, indicating a 10.9% decrease from the year-ago reported figure. Our estimate is pegged at $305.5 million.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Truckload revenues is pegged at $187 million, indicating a 4.1% decline from the fourth-quarter 2023 reported number. Truckload revenues are expected to have been hurt due to a decrease in revenue per load and load volume. Our estimate is pegged at $195.3 million.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Final Mile Services revenues is pegged at $241 million, indicating a 0.8% decrease from the fourth-quarter 2023 reported number. General weakness in demand across many of the end markets served might have hurt the segment. Our estimate is pegged at $240.3 million.

Higher net interest expense is likely to mar J.B. Hunt’s bottom line. JBHT continues to incur higher interest expenses due to higher interest rates. Further, the company’s bottom line is expected to have been hurt by an expected increase in operating expenses due to high purchased transportation costs, salaries, wages and benefit expenses.Notably, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for JBHT’s fourth-quarter 2024 earnings has been revised downward by 2.4% in the past 60 days to $1.64 per share.

What Our Model Says

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for J.B. Hunt this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that’s not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

J.B. Hunt has an Earnings ESP of -2.29% and a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) at present.

Highlights of JBHT’s Q3 Performance

J.B. Hunt Transport Services' third-quarter 2024 earnings per share of $1.49 outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.42 but declined 17.2% year over year.

Total operating revenues of $3.07 billion surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.04 billion but declined 3% year over year.Total operating revenues, excluding fuel surcharge revenue, decreased less than 1% from the year-ago reported quarter.

Stocks to Consider

Here are a few stocks from the broader Zacks Transportation sector that investors may consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.

C.H. Robinson CHRW has an Earnings ESP of +0.22% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present. CHRW is scheduled to report fourth-quarter 2024 earnings on Jan. 29. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter 2024 earnings has been revised 7.7% upward in the past 90 days. CHRW’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the preceding four quarters and missed once, the average beat being 10.3%.

Southwest Airlines LUV has an Earnings ESP of +2.97% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. LUV is set to release third-quarter results on Jan. 30. Upbeat air-travel demand is likely to have aided the quarterly performance.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter 2024 earnings has moved north 32.2% in the past 90 days. LUV’s earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the preceding four quarters and missed once, delivering an average surprise of 111.62%.

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