【铜：基本面利多不足 上行空间有限】金十期货1月10日讯，沪铜近期表现强势，1. 宏观面上，美联储公布12月例会的会议纪要显示多位联储官员认为未来几个月需要谨慎，暗示降息或暂停，市场预期美联储2025年可能降息2次。同时美国当选总统将于1月20日就任，美元指数短期将延续强势，铜价将面临一定上行压力。2. 基本面上，供给端，目前国内冶炼厂与上游矿商谈判不顺利，铜精矿现货TC低位运行，表现不及市场预期。受铜精矿及粗铜供应偏紧的影响，国内1月电解铜产量存在环比下降的预期。3. 消费端，市场期盼的年底消费翘尾现象未能如期兑现，目前铜下游采购积极性不高，电网类订单表现相对稳定，房地产与基建工程订单则仍表现弱势。随着春节假期逐渐临近，大部分企业将陆续开始为春节准备，新订单增长空间将受到限制。4. 总体而言，在基本面利多不足的背景下，预计沪铜近期将以冲高回落行情为主。主力合约上方压力位76000元/吨，下方支撑位73530元/吨。
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