金吾财讯 | 交银国际表示，1月8日，国家发展改革委、财政部发布《关于2025年加力扩围实施大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新政策的通知》，将2024年消费品市场8大类家电扩充至12类，并实施手机数码产品15%补贴。该行指，发布会介绍考虑元旦春节的消费需求，已经下达消费品以旧换新补贴资金810亿元，该行预计1季度或拉动家电数码等品类销售额超过1500亿元，估算补贴带动天猫/京东家电数码销售额分别约315/360亿元，或进一步拉动平台交易规模增长。展望2025年，该行预计电商平台收入增速区间8-14%，阿里淘天收入有望在GMV恢复增长及变现率提升带动下加速增长，京东变现率持稳，关注以旧换新国补政策延续对带电品类的拉动，拼多多百亿减免政策对变现率有短期影响，快手仍受行业竞争影响。
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