金吾财讯 | 申万宏源发研报指，该行预计24H2顺丰同城(09699)营业收入为76.83亿元，归母净利润为0.66亿元。结合公司上半年经营情况，该行上调盈利预测，预计24E-26E公司归母净利润分别为1.28/2.56/4.61亿元(原预测为1.03/2.23/3.83亿元)。该行表示，24年公司继续强化KA客户优势，帮助品牌商家扩张门店和配送范围，通过运营模式优化帮助商家实现履约侧的降本增效，24H1公司新增合作门店超过6000家，扩张趋势在24年下半年延续，同时截至24H1顺丰同城平台活跃商家规模达到55万，其中KA客户增长势头强劲，新签订单收入实现高双位数增长，KA客户的不断扩张有望带动公司收入端增长。此外，随着公司运力池的扩大、全场景订单的高增，公司订单密度持续增长，单位骑手可配送的订单数量有望进一步增加，随着规模效应的释放，公司未来盈利能力有望持续改善。该行续指，公司上半年经营情况超预期，收入端保持20%以上的增速，成本端随着规模效应的释放持续优化，该行上调盈利预测，预计24E-26E公司归母净利润分别为1.28/2.56/4.61亿元(原预测为1.03/2.23/3.83亿元)，同比增长分别为171.01%/99.97%/80.03%，对应当前PE倍数58x/29x/16x。维持“增持“评级。
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