人行下周三(15日)在港发行600亿元人民币央票，渣打中国宏观策略部主管刘洁表示，该规模为史上最大，几乎是之前最大单笔离岸人民银行票据发行规模的两倍，符合市场预期，并显示出坚定的立场，维持人民币在当前水平附近。
刘洁认为，由于目前距离美国总统当选人特朗普的就职典礼只有七个交易日，且对其政策的不确定性较高，该行研究显示特朗普将中国商品关税提高至60%几乎是不可能，因该水平甚至高于俄罗斯、古巴、白罗斯及北韩的关税。至于中国当局在可见将来将保持人民币政策不变，或将于特朗普的政策明朗后，才会重新审视外汇政策。
此外，刘洁料离岸人民币流动性条件在特朗普就职后甚至在农历新年后(至2月初)可能持续紧张，另预期未来美元兑人民币汇率将被限制在7.35以下，当美国政策变得更为清晰时，内地可能重新考虑外汇立场，从而决定是否允许汇率定价超过7.2水平。(jl/da)
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