1 月 9 日,QCP Capital 最新分析指出,比特币在成功测试 92500 美元关键支撑位后于昨晚反弹至 95200 美元。然而,在美国政府计划出售被查封的丝绸之路比特币消息传出后,今日亚洲早盘比特币前景转为看空。
加密货币价格继续受到宏观不利因素影响,昨晚公布的美联储会议纪要显示出更加鹰派的立场。美联储表示,鉴于通胀风险上升,将放缓降息步伐。昨日公布的 ADP 就业调查也增加了宏观不确定性,显示私营部门招聘和工资增长均有所放缓。这与周二公布的 JOLTS 职位空缺数据所描绘的较强劲的就业市场形成鲜明对比。
期权市场方面,所有期限的曲线均走陡,3-6 月价差扩大了 1.5 个波动率点,6-12 月价差升至 1 个波动率点以上。交易台持续观察到近月波动率承压,1 月 17 日到期的平值期权较昨晚下跌 3 个波动率点。
QCP 预计今日美国市场休市期间,比特币在 92000-95000 美元区间整理。若跌破 92000 美元,可能会进一步下探至 90000 美元整数关口。
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