Even though Applied Optoelectronics (NASDAQ:AAOI) has lost US$226m market cap in last 7 days, shareholders are still up 578% over 3 years

Simply Wall St.
16 Jan

It might be of some concern to shareholders to see the Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. (NASDAQ:AAOI) share price down 21% in the last month. But over three years the performance has been really wonderful. Over that time, we've been excited to watch the share price climb an impressive 578%. Arguably, the recent fall is to be expected after such a strong rise. Only time will tell if there is still too much optimism currently reflected in the share price. We love happy stories like this one. The company should be really proud of that performance!

In light of the stock dropping 14% in the past week, we want to investigate the longer term story, and see if fundamentals have been the driver of the company's positive three-year return.

See our latest analysis for Applied Optoelectronics

Applied Optoelectronics isn't currently profitable, so most analysts would look to revenue growth to get an idea of how fast the underlying business is growing. Shareholders of unprofitable companies usually desire strong revenue growth. As you can imagine, fast revenue growth, when maintained, often leads to fast profit growth.

Applied Optoelectronics actually saw its revenue drop by 0.5% per year over three years. This is in stark contrast to the strong share price growth of 89%, compound, per year. There can be no doubt this kind of decoupling of revenue growth and share price growth is unusual to see in loss making companies. So there is a serious possibility that some holders are counting their chickens before they hatch.

You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

NasdaqGM:AAOI Earnings and Revenue Growth January 15th 2025

We consider it positive that insiders have made significant purchases in the last year. Even so, future earnings will be far more important to whether current shareholders make money. This free report showing analyst forecasts should help you form a view on Applied Optoelectronics

A Different Perspective

It's nice to see that Applied Optoelectronics shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 65% over the last year. That's better than the annualised return of 14% over half a decade, implying that the company is doing better recently. Given the share price momentum remains strong, it might be worth taking a closer look at the stock, lest you miss an opportunity. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Applied Optoelectronics better, we need to consider many other factors. To that end, you should learn about the 3 warning signs we've spotted with Applied Optoelectronics (including 1 which doesn't sit too well with us) .

There are plenty of other companies that have insiders buying up shares. You probably do not want to miss this free list of undervalued small cap companies that insiders are buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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