Brexit, Donald Trump’s tariffs and changing relations with China will hamper British trade growth in the next decade, a new report suggests.

UK trade will only grow by 0.7 per cent annually between 2023 and 2033, according to new projections from Boston Consulting Group (BCG), down from a previous estimate of 0.9 per cent.

This would see trade growth fall behind domestic GDP growth, which BCG expects to average 1.6 per cent in the decade to 2033, meaning trade is a less significant part of economic activity.

Global trade, in contrast, is projected to grow at 2.6 per cent every year over the same period.

Brexit will be a major impediment to UK trade growth, the report suggests, although the UK’s trading woes extend around the world.

“UK-EU trade continues to decline due to post-Brexit barriers, but low/no growth is not confined to Europe. UK trade with Canada and Japan, for example, is predicted to remain broadly flat,” it said.

Tim Figures, partner and associate director at BCG, said the new projections were “concerning for a global trading nation such as the UK”.

“While resetting trading relationships with the EU – which remains the UK’s main trading partner – will be critical to addressing this, our projections suggest that the issue is a broader one, impacting exports globally,” he added.

The impact of Brexit on UK-EU trade has been unevenly felt across sectors, with goods trade suffering much more than services.

In 2023, goods exports to the EU were 11 per cent below their 2019 level in real terms. Services exports, in contrast, were nine per cent above their 2019 level in real terms.