港股异动 | 黄金股盘中走高 降息预期下修空间有限 通胀担忧托底金价

智通财经
13 Jan

智通财经APP获悉,黄金股盘中走高,截至发稿,山东黄金(01787)涨3.04%,报14.24港元;招金矿业(01818)涨2.68%,报12.24港元;紫金矿业(02899)涨1.06%,报15.3港元;灵宝黄金(03330)涨0.96%,报4.22港元。

消息面上,上周,金价周一小幅下跌后实现四连涨,虽然有经济数据放缓及联储官员表态暂缓降息等利空因素,受特朗普贸易政策不确定性影响,避险买盘需求提升,COMEX黄金期货周度收涨2.36%报2717.4美元/盎司。数据方面,美国12月非农新增就业25.6万人,为九个月最大增幅,超出预期值16.5万人,前值从22.7万下修至21.2万;12月失业率为4.1%,低于预期和11月的4.2%。

平安证券分析认为,当前市场对于特朗普上台后的政策兑现预期较高,担忧通胀抬头,降息预期不断下修,这使得金价承压,但是通胀担忧托底金价。目前,降息预期下修空间有限,此时边际变量为通胀预期的变化。特朗普兑现政策决心较强,1月金价在通胀担忧中震荡上行。

天风证券指出,展望2025年,美国债务余额仍在快速上行,进一步弱化美元信用,在推升央行购金需求的同时,美债配置资金的溢出也将为金价上行提供动能;进入降息周期,金价上行空间打开,不过美国偏粘性的通胀或将使降息节奏出现预期上的反复,加剧金价的波动。

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