智通财经APP获悉,中联重科(01157)涨超4%,截至发稿,涨3.94%,报5.54港元,成交额2511.54万港元。
东吴证券发布研报指出,2024年12月销售各类挖掘机19369台,同比增长16%。其中国内销量9312台,同比+22.1%;出口量10057台,同比+10.8%,内销符合此前CME预期、出口超预期。国内市场来看,增速持续超预期主要受益于水利工程和矿山景气度高,对应小挖和大挖需求较好;出口主要受益于去库完成+部分地区(以印尼市场为典型)需求显著回暖。截至2024年10月,我国对印度尼西亚工程机械出口金额累计同比增速已经转正,对比上半年累计同比下滑19%,Q3以来印尼的需求显著回暖。
该行续指,展望2025年,国内市场处于周期上行通道,挖机销量有望保持约10%的增长;出口市场来看,2025年各地区大选影响基本消除、叠加主要地区经济温和复苏,挖机销量降幅有望明显收窄。基于2025年工程机械行业景气度持续回暖,预测核心主机厂2025年收入增速在15%左右,利润增速在20%左右,对应当前估值位置较低,作为稳健性资产配置性价比较高。重点推荐中联重科等标的。
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