智通财经APP获悉,光伏产业链延续反弹,截至发稿,福莱特玻璃(06865)涨6.8%,报12.56港元;协鑫科技(03800)涨6.36%,报1.17港元;信义光能(00968)涨4.42%,报3.31港元;新特能源(01799)涨4.22%,报7.4港元。
消息面上,据卓创资讯,截至1月9日,国内光伏玻璃在产产能8.97万t/d,考虑部分窑炉堵口限产,实际有效产能更低,目前产能已去化至已接近23年6月左右水平。库存水平看,截至1月9日,厂商库存天数为33.7天,24年11月至今总体保持去库趋势。供给端看,行业后续窑炉仍有冷修计划,供给有望进一步收缩。
中信建投指出,近期光伏价格出现反弹,核心原因在于硅片、电池经历几个月去库周期后,库存处于底部,同时需求端春节前产业链备货,需求集中释放。当前处于行业需求淡季,预计春节后下游需求逐步复苏,届时行业延续去库,产业链价格有望修复至现金成本以上,而价格的进一步上涨则需要看到库存尤其是硅料库存的明显去化。测算硅料库存降至1个月以下可能在2025年四季度至2026年上半年出现,届时硅料价格有望进一步上涨。
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