汇丰研究发表报告，中国IV标准重型卡车补贴力度超预期，因此将今年重型卡车产量预测从之前的90万台上调至95万台，意味着6%的增长。该行认为潍柴动力(02338.HK) 新管理层属市场导向，致力达标，且考虑重卡销量增加、近期大缸径发动机新订单，以及市场过度下调预期，上调潍柴H股评级由“持有”升至“买入”，并升其今明两年盈测分别3%及1%，其H股目标价由13.5元升至15.5元。
另该行指出，由于市场可能下调对中国重汽(03808.HK) 去年盈利预测、出口增长放缓以及利润率存忧虑，维持“持有”评级，目标价由22元升至26元，由于市场竞争激烈，降去年盈测9%，但憧憬重卡销售增加，升今明两年盈测各2%。相较于重汽，该行指更看好潍柴，因为潍柴的市盈率接近上一轮下行周期的低位，而重汽的市盈率则高于平均值；加上整车和发动机之间的潜在利润分化。
该行指，上述两只股票的下一个催化因素包括液化天然气重型卡车纳入补贴范围、宏观经济复苏及股息增加。主要下行风险为行业销售令人失望、价格竞争更激烈及出口关税高于预期。(ha/da)(港股报价延迟最少十五分钟。沽空资料截至 2025-01-13 16:25。)
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