【海通期货：EC主力切换至2504，地缘停火预期施压盘面显著下行】金十期货1月15日讯，1月14日马士基下调针对长协征收的旺季附加费PSS，从前期的750/1500下调至250/500，1月20日起生效，参考25年马士基长协主要集中在大柜2200-2500美金区间，计入PSS后落地价格约大柜2700美金。1. 长协PSS调降从两个角度理解，一方面和前期所提到的船司更多选择放开合约货订舱以缓解年前填舱压力所对应，另一方面也为后续现货运价进一步下行打开空间。2. 地缘方面，大部分消息指向潜在达成停火协议，包括外媒称美国国务卿布林肯将在周二公布加沙战后计划以及哈马斯表示停火谈判已经进入最后一个阶段。从远月合约表现来看，市场预期达成停火的可能性增加，出现明显增仓下行。观察后续停火协议的实质性进展。3. 04合约锚定现货的降价趋势，淡季月份现货报价存在短期倒挂长协的可能性。远月合约将锚定地缘进展以及后续特朗普上台后对中东局势的相关态度。
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.