金吾财讯 | 航空股普升，中国国航(00753)涨5.29%，中国南航(01055)涨4.71%，中国东航(00670)涨4.27%。消息面上，全国民航工作会议召开。2024年，全行业全年共完成运输总周转量1485.2亿吨公里、旅客运输量7.3亿人次、货邮运输量898.2万吨，同比分别增长25%、17.9%、22.1%，较2019年分别增长14.8%、10.6%、19.3%。2025年预计完成运输总周转量1610亿吨公里、旅客运输量7.8亿人次、货邮运输量950万吨。国泰君安表示，近期春运机票预售加速且量价均明显上升，其中国内含油票价环比上升超一成。考虑学生放假在即，未来一周预售将继续加快。官方预测春运客流将创历史新高，中国民航局预测航空客运量将同比增长超7.8%，较2019年增长超23%。业界乐观预期春运供需，预售策略积极未有调整，将助力旺季票价市场化效应展现。预计2024Q4国内扣油票价同比上升约三成，航司主业淡季同比大幅减亏。预计2025Q1油价同比下降趋势延续，春运表现可期。重申航空具长逻辑，2025年供需恢复趋势确定，考虑票价市场化与机队增速放缓，盈利中枢上升将开启。提示油价与汇率不改航司价值与长逻辑，或提供逆向时机。
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