【氧化铝下跌加速，现货弱势继续压制盘面报价】金十期货特约光大期货点评：周三，氧化铝价格继续大幅下挫，盘中跌幅一度逼近6%。1. 据Mysteel，2025年1月10日海外市场氧化铝成交3万吨，价格为西澳FOB610美元/吨或东澳FOB607美元/吨或印度/印尼FOB616美元/吨。与此同时，铝土矿现货市场报价下滑至120美元/吨左右，铝土矿热情的衰退让国内氧化铝现货成交价同样不断下调。受现货价格走弱影响，氧化铝盘面价格再次承压下滑。2. 后续来看，1月氧化铝在交割前这两日大幅下跌，从前几日4700以上的报价一路跌到3800以下，说明多头接货意愿较差。在年前下游铝厂备货暂告一段落的情况下，弱势格局或难有改变。此外，去年12月末伴随着远期海内外氧化铝新增产能释放，氧化铝库存结束了7月初以来的持续去库趋势，供应宽松预期令月差呈现出明显的BACK结构，买家更倾向于随用随采，进一步加速氧化铝当下的累库格局，短期继续偏弱对待，等待悲观情绪的出清。
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