November immigration data shows Canada's federal government is well on track to reach its 2024 permanent resident target of 485,000, said Scotiabank.

With one month of data to be recorded, a great over-or-undershoot in this stream is highly unlikely, noted the bank.

Non-permanent residents as a share of the total population, however, recorded a very slight uptick versus the previous quarter of 7.3%, now reaching 7.4% in Q4 estimates, despite a clear reduction in visa issuances among major streams compared with 2023, pointed out Scotiabank.

The increase compared with Q3 2024 constitutes the lowest increase in share witnessed for the year, as measures put in place throughout 2024 take hold. This can be seen particularly in the temporary student population, where fluctuations in visa issuances and stock are quite closely aligned, given the seasonal nature of when students begin and conclude their studies.

Lower issuances versus the previous year -- over -18% compared with the same point in 2023 -- combined with existing students completing their schooling and leaving have consistently chipped away at the overall international student population throughout the year, with Q4 figures close to 5% lower than three months prior, stated the bank.

It is an initial step in the federal government's long journey to reach its stated 5% share goal by the end of 2026, one Scotiabank maintains is unlikely, along with its aim to stall growth entirely over the next two years.

Even as Canada enters a federal election year, with a government determined to show results on a hotly-debated issue and a near-universal consensus that growth needs to slow, administrative limitations and barriers put limits on how quickly the government can shrink the temporary resident population and slow overall growth nationally, added Scotiabank.