金吾财讯 | 高盛发布研报指，招商银行(03968)2024年初步业绩与高盛预期相符。全年营收3380亿元（人民币，下同），同比持平；净利润1480亿元，同比微增1%；拨备380亿元，同比下降8%。不过，其隐含的2024年业绩超出高盛预期，得益于超预期的非利息收入和拨备释放。四季度表现亮眼，收入850亿元，同比增长8%，比高盛预期高9%；净利润350亿元，同比增长8%，比高盛预期高11%。
2024年，招商银行净利息收入540亿元，同比增长3%，净息差为1.83%，比高盛预期高5个基点。资产方面，总资产增长4%/10%（季度/年度），存款增长4%/12%（季度/年度），资产增长快于贷款增长，显示其延续高债券投资趋势。非利息收入310亿元，同比增长15%/17%（季度/年度），投资收益成为收入增长主因。不良贷款覆盖率412%，不良贷款率持平。2024年净资产收益率为12.9%，资产收益率为1.28%。
高盛指出，招商银行也面临一定的下行风险，包括过度信贷扩张影响资本积累、政策利率和需求导致净息差下降、政策宽松不及预期、资产质量恶化、手续费收入增长乏力、市场波动引发投资损失等。
基于以上因素，高盛给予招商银行H股/A股12个月目标价分别为47.36港元/49.85元人民币，维持“买入”评级。
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