智通财经APP获悉，蒙古焦煤(00975)午后涨超9%，截至发稿，涨9.08%，报6.85港元，成交额2901.27万港元。
国盛证券指出，参考蒙古国2025年预算案，蒙古国工业与矿产资源部部长策·图旺表示“2025年计划出口8300万吨煤炭”，结合出口中国占比及炼焦煤进口占比约70%来看，按上述规划，2025年预计从蒙古国进口炼焦煤5700~5800万吨，相比2024年年化进口量增长约0.3~2.1%，但实际增量仍取决于国内焦煤市场强弱。
该行在研报中指出，蒙古焦煤进口价格优势依旧，“以需定量”进口预期仍在，参考蒙古国焦煤上市公司财报数据，2024H1蒙古焦煤吨煤开采加运输成本42.9美元/吨、南戈壁吨煤现金成本39.5美元/吨，较国内焦煤企业成本具有明显优势，进而蒙古焦煤进口主要路径为“国内焦煤价格低、销售不畅→中蒙进口口岸库存高→倒逼进口量下滑”，而并非降价至蒙古国煤炭生产成本，反过来若国内明年焦煤价格超预期，亦会带来蒙古国焦煤进口顺畅，进口量上行。
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.