金吾财讯 | 建银国际发研报指，百济神州(06160)宣布2025财年有望首次实现美国通用会计准则（GAAP）下的运营利润。该行预计集团2025年将实现GAAP盈亏平衡，以及首次实现非GAAP年度净利润。将2025财年BTK药物的销售预测上调25%，2026财年的销售预测上调15%，使预测销售额分别达到33亿美元和40亿美元。考虑到百济神州运营效率的提升，该行将2025财年和2026财年的运营费用与销售额比率预测分别下调12%和3%，降至82%和78%。该行预计，2024年4.42亿美元的运营亏损将在2025财年转变为8800万美元的运营利润。对于2024财年，该行维持总收入和净亏损预测不变。对于2025财年，该行将非通用会计准则下的预测从盈亏平衡调整为首次实现4.26亿美元的非通用会计准则净利润。最后，对于2026财年，该行预测非通用会计准则下的收益将增加6.13亿美元，达到7.99亿美元。该行指，集团2025年基本面改善，推动估值上升，考虑到集团已在美国获准的PD-1生物药将为未来销售带来正面影响，将目标价从173港元上调3.5%至179港元，维持“跑赢大市”评级。
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