金吾财讯 | 铝业股普升，荣阳实业(02078)涨6.48%，中国宏桥(01378)涨4.55%，中国铝业(02600)涨3.03%。光大证券研报称，1）2024年氧化铝价格高企的供应瓶颈在于铝土矿资源。2）2025年海外铝土矿及国内氧化铝的新增供应有望缓和国内氧化铝价格。3）以史为鉴，氧化铝价格不一定与电解铝价格同步。4）“新三样”需求有望对冲地产下滑，支撑电解铝价格中枢上移。5）国内铝土矿对外依赖度持续提升，铝土矿战略属性逐步显现。若2025年国内新投氧化铝产能以及海外进口铝土矿增量可以逐步落地，或将缓和国内铝土矿紧张以及氧化铝高价，氧化铝部分利润将向电解铝转移。
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