BRUSSELS: The European Union has said it is looking forward to a positive engagement with the incoming United States administration.
But behind the scenes, the bloc has been preparing for months for the possibility of a more protectionist stance from their ally across the Atlantic Ocean.
This comes as Donald Trump gets ready to take the oath of office next Monday (Jan 20) as the US’ 47th president.
Even before entering the White House, Trump issued a warning last week to Denmark: Either the EU member state gives up the mineral resource rich autonomous territory of Greenland, or faces tariffs.
The president-elect said it is a matter of national security, citing the influence of Russia and China in the region.
The European Commission responded by calling Trump’s threats hypothetical.
Denmark's Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen told Trump it is up to Greenland to decide its own future. She also assured Trump that Denmark was prepared to increase its responsibility for security in the Arctic.
“It’s … pretty wild stuff to be talking about … in the run up to his taking office,” said Ian Lesser, a distinguished fellow at Washington-based think tank German Marshall Fund.
“I think it is slightly unfortunate in the context of what is a more legitimate request on the part of Washington to see Europe pay more and do more in defence.”
Trump wants North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) allies in Europe to spend 5 per cent of their gross domestic product (GDP) on defence, up from the current target of 2 per cent.
But many cash-strapped European governments are likely to struggle to get close to that number, said observers.
EU members are also nervous about what a change in administration will mean for Ukraine, which has been fighting Moscow forces since Russia launched its full-scale invasion almost three years ago.
Trump has called for a quick resolution to the war.
Under current President Joe Biden, the US is Ukraine’s largest backer, providing military assistance as well as humanitarian aid. But there are fears Trump could cut support and force Kyiv to give up territory.
The EU’s top diplomat Kaja Kallas said Europe is ready to take over leadership on the matter if the US is no longer willing to do so.
Long before the US election last November, the EU had been prepping for the possibility of a Trump win.
Caught off guard by tariffs on European steel and aluminum during his first term in office between 2017 and 2021, the bloc is now steeling itself for a more protectionist US administration and the prospect of wide-reaching duties from its leading trade partner.
The EU has already floated the idea of importing more liquefied natural gas from the US to appease Washington.
“The US is the EU’s biggest trade counterparty… maybe they need to dilute that a bit,” said David Barrett, director and CEO of the EBC Financial Group.
“Because if globalisation is coming to a point where it’s not quite what we’ve seen over the last couple of decades, people need to shift the focus and try and find new markets.”
While Brussels seeks to show a united front, the 27-member bloc has grown increasingly divided with right-wing populism on the rise.
For some EU leaders, Trump’s presidency is a chance to bolster influence both domestically and on the European stage.
Earlier this month, Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni visited the president-elect at his Florida home.
“My thinking is that Meloni might actually try to play up the US against Brussels in the near future and the Trump camp might expect that in exchange for concessions towards Meloni,” said Giulio Pugliese, director of the EU-Asia Project at the European University Institute.
EU leaders said they are committed to strengthening the transatlantic bond. They said Europe and the US are stronger together, but they are bracing to find out just how that aligns with Trump’s philosophy of America First.
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