汇丰研究发表报告指，万科(02202.HK) 近期发展引起市场忧虑，万科的股价和债券价格在1月16日均出现重大跌幅。该行基本预测是万科贷款在今年底前仍会为履约贷款(performing loan)。尽管万科的流动资金压力可能持续，但预期承保银行不会在年底前将万科风险敞口计入不良贷款。
报告指，内地支持房地产市场16项措施已延长至2026年，为银行支持开发商提供更多政策支持。该行认为降低实际贷款利率是可能的措施。万科的贷款利率每降低1个百分点，料内地银行的税前收入将损失18亿人民币。
在熊市情境下，如果对万科的敞口必须降级，香港银行体系的不良贷款比率将增加46个基点，达到2.45%；内地不良贷款比率将增加7个基点，达到1.64%，但整体影响在可控范围内。该行偏好工行(01398.HK) 、建行(00939.HK) 、招行(03968.HK) 、中银香港(02388.HK) 及港交所(00388.HK) 。(ha/a)(港股报价延迟最少十五分钟。沽空资料截至 2025-01-20 12:25。)
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