【停火谈判的推进使得年内复航成为可能，但集运欧线上半年合约受地缘消息进展的影响相对较小】金十期货1月20日讯，早盘集运欧线期货低开高走，现涨近2%，国投期货表示，地缘方面，周日巴以第一阶段停火换俘协议正式生效，也门胡赛武装暗示暂停攻击红海船只，但表示将与哈马斯紧密协调，以应对以色列违反停火协议的行动。因而尽管停火谈判的推进使得年内复航成为可能，但上半年合约受地缘消息进展的影响相对较小，更多受现货市场走势驱动，远月合约交易将持续围绕和谈进展，呈现与现货间存在较大风险贴水的格局。现货市场方面，新一期SCFI欧洲航线报$2278/FEU，环比跌6.6%，较上期14.4%的跌幅收窄，但仍处下行通道，预计本周运价将继续下行，因而尽管目前主力已经历连续下行，但现货端弱势下利好驱动难寻，预计其将维持震荡行情。
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