ASX 200 mining shares have paid some of the best dividend yields in the market in recent years.
But can they continue to do so in 2025 when commodity prices are weak and the Chinese economy is in trouble?
In this article, we examine current predictions for 2025 dividends from the big ASX 200 miners.
These predictions reflect consensus expectations among analysts using the CommSec trading platform.
We also compare these predictions to the dividends that ASX 200 mining shares paid last year.
For the purposes of this article, we are focusing on ASX 200 large-cap mining shares.
They pay the biggest dividends and, therefore, have the most relevance to investors.
ASX 200 large-cap shares are companies with a market capitalisation above $10 billion.
There are six ASX 200 miners in this group.
Here are the consensus forecasts for 2025 dividends as published on CommSec today.
| ASX 200 large-cap mining share | 2024 dividend | Forecast 2025 dividend | Dividend yield |
| Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG) | $2.005 | $1.128 | 5.89% |
| Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) | $6.36 | $5.489 | 4.62% |
| BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) | 2.204 | $1.726 | 4.31% |
| South32 Ltd (ASX: S32) | 5.3 cents | 5.6 cents | 1.61% |
| Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) | 40 cents | 47.5 cents | 2.75% |
| Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) | 7 cents | 11.2 cents | 1.98% |
So, Fortescue is the ASX 200 mining stock currently expected to pay the highest dividend yield in 2025.
As you can see above, the dividend yields paid by the major ASX 200 iron ore shares, such as Fortescue, are likely to be lower than in the past few years.
The dividend amounts are lower in every instance, and although the share prices of ASX iron ore shares fell significantly in 2024, the yields look relatively low by historical standards.
A key reason for this is a weakened iron ore price.
In 2024, the 62% iron ore price tumbled by more than 20%. This was mainly due to concerns about lower anticipated demand from China due to its sluggish economy and, particularly, its flailing property sector.
Looking ahead, another headwind for ASX 200 iron ore mining shares is United States president-elect Donald Trump's promise of a 60% tariff on China after he takes office next week.
This could further weaken the Chinese economy, which would likely have a flow-through effect on iron ore demand.
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