Two factors often determine stock prices in the long run: earnings and interest rates. Investors can't control the latter, but they can focus on a company's earnings results every quarter.
We know earnings results are vital, but how a company performs compared to bottom line expectations can be even more important when it comes to stock prices, especially in the near-term. This means that investors might want to take advantage of these earnings surprises.
The Zacks Earnings ESP, or Expected Surprise Prediction, aims to find earnings surprises by focusing on the most recent analyst revisions. The basic premise is that if an analyst reevaluates their earnings estimate ahead of an earnings release, it means they likely have new information that could possibly be more accurate. The core of the ESP model is comparing the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, where the resulting percentage difference between the two equals the Expected Surprise Prediction.
Now that we understand what the ESP is and how beneficial it can be, let's dive into a stock that currently fits the bill. Hecla Mining (HL) earns a Zacks Rank #1 right now and its Most Accurate Estimate sits at $0.06 a share, just 27 days from its upcoming earnings release on February 12, 2025.
By taking the percentage difference between the $0.06 Most Accurate Estimate and the $0.04 Zacks Consensus Estimate, Hecla Mining has an Earnings ESP of 50%.
HL is just one of a large group of Basic Materials stocks with a positive ESP figure. B2Gold (BTG) is another qualifying stock you may want to consider.
B2Gold is a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock, and is getting ready to report earnings on February 19, 2025. BTG's Most Accurate Estimate sits at $0.08 a share 34 days from its next earnings release.
For B2Gold, the percentage difference between its Most Accurate Estimate and its Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.07 is 11.63%.
Because both stocks hold a positive Earnings ESP, HL and BTG could potentially post earnings beats in their next reports.
Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>
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Hecla Mining Company (HL) : Free Stock Analysis Report
B2Gold Corp (BTG) : Free Stock Analysis Report
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