【尿素：春耕预期开始发酵 旺季有望“上春山”？】截至1月17日，小颗粒中国FOB报234美元/吨（+3），波罗的海小颗粒FOB报353美元/吨（+15），印度小颗粒CFR报370美元/吨（0）；中国大颗粒FOB报239美元/吨（+3）。1. 生产利润：煤制固定床理论利润-384元/吨，煤制新型水煤浆工艺理论利润133元/吨，气制工艺理论利润-183元/吨。供应端：企业产能利用率81.1%，企业总库存量163万吨，港口库存量为15.2万吨。需求端：复合肥产能利用率38.9%；三聚氰胺产能利用率为58.2%；尿素企业预收订单天数7.8日。2. 中辉期货分析师吴明近认为，上周五出口消息再次炒作影响下，尿素期货价格快速反弹。尽管尿素当前库存向中下游转移，上游库存去化，整体仍处于季节性高位，但基本面综合来看有所改善，上游煤炭价格趋稳，成本支撑暂稳定，固定床利润压缩为负，叠加3月即将开启春耕行情，后续尿素有望逐步企稳。主力2505合约在近期日k低点1600---1700区域附近低吸埋伏看反弹或更为理想，上方关注1800大关压力作用，有效上破或开启阶段性反转行情。
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