金吾财讯 | 交银国际表示,美国2024年12月CPI同比增2.9%,预期2.9%,上月为2.7%;环比增0.4%,预期0.3%,上月为0.3%。12月核心CPI同比增3.2%,预期及前值均为3.3%;环比增0.2%,预期0.2%,上月为0.3%。继12月非农数据强劲增长后,CPI数据便成了市场的焦点,在美债利率经历了新一轮的陡峭上行后,CPI数据无疑将进一步放大近期本就脆弱的资本市场的波动。12月名义CPI符合预期,而核心CPI、尤其是核心服务通胀数据的放缓也明显缓解了市场的紧张情绪。然而,短暂的通胀放缓对市场的安抚可能较为有限,中期上行风险依旧不容乐观。该行指,12月意外回落的通胀数据公布后,市场对1月跳过降息的预期几无变化。但相比于上周公布的强劲非农,市场提前了对2025年降息时点的押注—由9月降息提前至6月降息,但对于全年的降息押注仍在1-2次。美联储将于下周召开1月FOMC会议,在强劲非农和放缓的通胀数据组合下,1月跳过降息已是基准情形。当前美联储官员对于降息有较大分歧,尽管多数官员近期均表示将放缓降息,并依据数据来进行观察,但基于当前政策利率仍高,具有限制性,美联储预计仍将择机降息。
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