中银国际发表报告指，农夫山泉(09633.HK) 估值溢价仍有支撑，2025年瓶装水销售有望反弹。该行将农夫山泉2024年至2026年的收入预测下调4%至5%，维持“买入”评级，将目标价上调至39.1元，对应2025年市盈率29.9倍。
该行指，借鉴日本即饮软饮(“即饮型饮料”)市场的经验，在1990年代日本经济衰退期间，无糖即饮茶经历了高速发展和渗透。该板块过去三年在内地亦实现了爆发式增长，2025年至2026年料将保持双位数的销售增长。
至于包装水业务方面，价格促销和竞争边际缓和，农夫山泉的定价策略正趋于理性。展望2025年，认为农夫山泉仍将以巩固市占率作为优先任务，其包装水销售额预计按年增长7%。另外，尽管由于竞争激烈导致平均售价下降，但原材料价格下降和成本控制带来的利润率改善可部分抵消不利影响。(vc/w)(港股报价延迟最少十五分钟。沽空资料截至 2025-01-17 12:25。)
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