金吾财讯 | 部分消费股向好，康师傅控股(00322)涨4.38%，蒙牛乳业(02319)涨2.8%，华润饮料(02460)涨1.28%。华西证券表示，各地加大消费券发放力度 ，“微信蓝包、“谷子”新消费贡献增量，有望点燃春节消费热情：临近春节消费旺季，各地纷纷启动新一轮消费券发放，主要涵盖文旅、餐饮、零售、住宿、体育、家电等重点领域；作为短期刺激手段，消费券的发放能够产生乘数效应，快速提振消费信心，激活市场需求。春节为礼赠的高峰时期，微信淘宝相继发布“送礼物”模块，“谷子经济”持续受年轻人追捧，有望引爆春节消费。高盛发报指出，展望今年消费者在开支方面将保持理性，而消费信心的恢复将依赖于更为持续的政策支持、房地产市场稳定、就业市场改善及经济活动的恢复。该行预计企业的销售和利润可能在去年第三季或去年下半年触底，但政策实施的范围、通缩趋势的逆转及来自整合趋势的风险和并购机会，均会影响今年的整体消费趋势。该行认为，具备结构性增长机遇的公司或行业，更有能力降低宏观波动带来的影响。该行于3至6个月的时间内，看好的行业包括白色家电、零售多元化、特定的运动品牌及乳制品和饮料。建议关注、美的(00300)、农夫山泉(09633)、百胜中国(09987)、康师傅、蒙牛、名创优品(09896)、巨子生物(02367)、老铺黄金(06181)及海信家电(00921)等。
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