金吾财讯 | 交银国际表示，2024年12月前百开发商销售有所反弹。根据克而瑞的初步数据，前百开发商的全口径销售总额由11月3,865亿元(人民币，下同)环比提高22.7%至4,742亿元。24家主要上市开发商12月销售额也有所反弹，环比增加19.0%。国家统计局11月数据显示各线城市价格指数跌幅普遍有所收窄，11月新建商品住宅价格同比/环比分别下跌6.1%/0.2%(10月：-6.2%/-0.5%)，二手商品住宅价格同比/环比跌幅也有所收窄，分别下跌8.5%/0.3%(10月：-8.9%/-0.5%)。该行指，12月政策走向延续，住建部工作会议明确指出，2025年要持续用力推动房地产市场止跌回稳，并将其作为五大任务之首。该行认为当前国家稳定房地产行业的信号明确。但受季节性因素和春节假期影响，该行预计2025年1月传统淡季的行业销售或将有所承压。该行预计随着购房门槛的降低和抵押贷款承受能力的提高，二级市场的需求将有所改善，而一级实体房地产市场将保持基本稳定。该行认为买家将继续偏好国企项目，中长线该行则继续看好华润置地(01109/买入)和越秀地产(00123/买入)，这两家公司在过去几年的销售表现优异，且在销售方面执行能力更强。
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