Packaging Corporation PKG is set to release fourth-quarter 2024 results on Jan 29, after the closing bell. 

Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PKG’s fourth-quarter revenues is pegged at $2.01 billion, indicating 3.1% growth from the year-ago reported figure.

The consensus estimate for earnings is pegged at $2.51 per share. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PKG’s fourth-quarter earnings has moved up 0.4% in the past 60 days. The estimate indicates year-over-year growth of 17.8%.

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PKG’s Solid Earnings Surprise History

Packaging Corp’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimates in the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 8.6%.

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What the Zacks Model Unveils for Packaging Corp

Our model does not predict an earnings beat for Packaging Corp this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. That is not the case here, as you can see below.

You can uncover the best stocks before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: Packaging Corp has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%.

Zacks Rank: PKG currently carries a Zacks Rank of 2.

Factors Likely to Have Shaped PKG’s Q4 Performance

Packaging Corp’s fourth-quarter results are expected to reflect the impacts of lower prices on the Packaging segment. This was primarily led by the decrease in the published benchmark index grades in late 2023. Price and mix impacts for the Packaging segment are expected to be unfavorable at 4.3% for the quarter, per our model.

Demand in the Packaging segment is expected to have been strong in the fourth quarter with corrugated shipments per day continuing to strengthen and slightly higher containerboard volume. 

However, total corrugated product shipments in the Packaging segment are likely to have been impacted by two fewer shipping days than in the third quarter. 

Our model predicts the Packaging segment’s volume to increase 13.4% year over year in the quarter under review, indicating stable packaging demand.

The estimate for the segment’s quarterly revenues is pegged at $1.94 billion, suggesting growth of 9.1% from the year-ago quarter’s reported number. Our model estimates the segment’s operating income at $459 million, indicating growth of 19.4% from the prior-year reported figure.

In the Paper segment, prices and mix are expected to have been flat sequentially. We expect volume to rise 3.2% year over year. We anticipate a negative pricing/mix impact of 1.9% for the fourth quarter.

The estimate for the Paper segment’s revenues is pegged at $145.7 million for the December-end quarter, suggesting growth of 5.7% from the year-ago reported figure. The consensus estimate for the segment’s operating income is $44 million, indicating a 26.1% rise from the prior-year quarter’s actual.

Packaging Corp’s Stock Price Performance

Over the past year, PKG shares have gained 55% compared with the industry’s 20.1% growth.

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Stocks That Warrant a Look

Here are some companies with the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat in their upcoming releases.

Flowserve Corporation FLS is expected to release its fourth-quarter 2024 results soon. It has an Earnings ESP of +2.60% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for FLS’ earnings is pegged at 77 cents per share, which indicates year-over-year growth of 13.2%. It has a trailing four-quarter average surprise of 10.8%.

Northwest Pipe Company NWPX, expected to release its fourth-quarter 2024 soon, has an Earnings ESP of +9.49% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Northwest Pipe’s fourth-quarter 2024 earnings is pegged at 91 cents per share, suggesting year-over-year growth of 68.5%. It has a trailing four-quarter average surprise of 32.4%.

Allegion plc ALLE, expected to release earnings soon, currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.34% and a Zacks Rank of 3.

The consensus estimate for Allegion’s earnings for the fourth quarter of 2024 is pegged at $1.74 per share, indicating year-over-year growth of 3.6%. ALLE has a trailing four-quarter average surprise of 9.9%.

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Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) : Free Stock Analysis Report

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