金吾财讯 | 摩根大通发表研报指，虽然目前对今年下半年及明年石油行业看法审慎，但考虑到中石油(00857)较不受油价波动的影响，因此相对偏好中石油，继续预测该公司2024年净利润将创历史新高。该行表示，美国财政部去年12月宣布制裁与伊朗原油销售有关的35个实体，行业数据显示，2025年1月伊朗原油及成品油出口合计减少120万桶，导致油价上涨，另外美国日前亦宣布对俄罗斯发起新一轮制裁，石油服务禁令将于下月27日生效。摩通认为事件将令未来两个月油价波动性较高，若石油限价及航运限制于2月至3月严格执行，中国上游行业将因俄罗斯与国际价格差距扩大而受益，估计俄罗斯石油折扣每桶提升2美元，将为中国石油净利带来约1%正面影响。该行续指，假如俄罗斯能源折扣或当地货币大幅贬值，摩通预期中石油今年可再创佳绩，并将今明两年每股盈利预测上调1%及2%，以反映伊拉克WestQurna-1油田产量提升，维持“增持”评级，目标价9港元。
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