金吾财讯 | 招银国际发研报指，预计途虎(09690)2H24收入将同比增长8%、环比增长7%至约76亿元，全年工场店数量增加超过900家至接近6,900家；2H24毛利率将环比下降1.5个百分点至24.4%，主要因为3Q24终端销售价格下调以提振消费需求。考虑到下半年公司加大广告投放力度，该行估计2H24销售费用率将环比上升1.1个百分点至13.8%，而其他营业费用率合计或有所下降。综上，该行预测途虎2H24经调整净利润将同比下降9%至2.43亿元，对应全年经调整净利润同比增长25%至约6亿元。考虑到4Q24更多新店开业以及对终端门店的营销支持增加，该行预计途虎2025年的收入增长有望提速。该行预计公司2025年毛利率有望提升至25.7%，主要得益于2025年供应商年降幅度增加，以及专供和自有自控品牌的销售占比提升，但销售费用率或仍将维持高位以保持用户流量的有效增长。综上，该行预计途虎2025年经调整净利润有望同比增长27%至7.63亿元，净利率同比提升0.5个百分点至4.6%。该行维持其买入评级，下调目标价至20港元，基于20x FY25E P/E（经调整），相比美国的可比公司仍有估值折价。面对宏观经济的不确定性，该行认为途虎的基本面相比其他的汽车售后服务商仍然更具韧性。
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