The latest Market Talks covering Basic Materials. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires at 4:20 ET, 12:20 ET and 16:50 ET.

0504 ET - Antofagasta shares have room to rise should the price of copper rally over the next two years, analysts at Peel Hunt Research write. The Anglo-Chilean's share price reflects current spot copper prices which means the shares have strong reward potential should prices rise, the analysts say. After its production update, the analysts lower their Ebitda estimates by 3% to $3.4 billion. Given its high capital expenditure, they lower expected dividend per share to $0.28. The analysts upgrade the stock to hold from reduce, and raise its share-price target to 1,735 pence from 1,685 pence. Shares fall 0.5% to 1,754.50 pence. (adam.whittaker@wsj.com)

0200 ET - Gold's risks seem skewed to the upside ahead of Trump's inauguration, as investors brace for policy shifts with economic implications, says Pepperstone research strategist Ahmad Assiri. Trump's executive orders are likely to set the tone for gold in the weeks ahead, he adds. Gold is already up 3% YTD, above the $2,700 mark, amid political and trade uncertainties. If Trump enacts tariffs that disrupt trade flows and amplify economic volatility, gold's role as a safe asset will be reinforced, Assiri says. Recent U.S. inflationary pressure adds to gold's appeal, as the metal has historically served as a reliable hedge against inflation as well. A call between Trump and China's Xi over the weekend temporarily eased risk premiums in Asia markets, but the potential for a trade war underscores gold's enduring haven demand, he says. (fabiana.negrinochoa@wsj.com)

2229 ET - South32 will likely need to shutter its Cerro Matoso ferronickel mine in northern Colombia "given the depressed outlook for the nickel market," Jefferies analysts say. The asset is unprofitable based on their forecasts, the analysts say in a note. A closure of the operation would have a positive impact of around A$0.15/share on South32's net present value, they estimate. Results of a strategic review of the Cerro Matoso operations are expected next month alongside 1H earnings. Jefferies has a hold rating and A$3.40 target on South32. The stock is up 0.6% at A$3.50. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

2145 ET - Bell Potter is "cautiously bearish" on Lynas Rare Earths, because of expectations neodymium-praseodymium prices will be lower for longer, analyst Regan Burrows says in a note. "LYC has already run ahead of pricing, we estimate the current stock price factors in a circa US$99/kilogram NdPr price into perpetuity," Burrows says. BP estimates a FY25 NdPr price of US$86/kilo. "Whilst LYC has strategic value, its revenue and earnings are still dependent upon a China derived price," Burrows says. The broker has a hold call and A$7.20/share target on Lynas, down from A$7.70 previously. The stock is down 2.4% at A$6.865. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

2140 ET - Iron ore falls in early Asian trade. Prices have recently rallied as market sentiment improves following strong Chinese trade data, ANZ Research analysts write in a note. However, the ferrous metal's fundamentals remain resilient, Nanhua Futures analysts say in a note. They note that short-term prices appear overvalued from a technical perspective, and a correction is expected in the near-term. The most-traded iron-ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange is down 0.4% at CNY772.5 a ton.(amanda.lee@wsj.com)

1940 ET - Gold Road's positive maiden study for the satellite Gilmour project adds incremental value and options for the miner near the Gruyere operation in western Australia that it owns with Gold Fields, says RBC Capital Markets analyst Alex Barkley. "The processing integration of Gilmour remains an uncertainty, but ultimately we find it a decent mining option that could add to GOR's regional value and flexibility," he says in a note. RBC has a sector perform call and A$2.30 target on Gold Road. The stock is up 1.5% at A$2.425. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

1921 ET - Miner South32's quarterly production result should be a positive tailwind, albeit tempered by some higher cost guidance, says Citi analyst Paul McTaggart. "S32 delivered a reasonably strong December quarter production report with aluminum/alumina and Cannington leading the way and beat versus Citi expectations," McTaggart says in a note. He highlights South32's steady FY25 production guidance and notes an increase in working capital. South32 is up 1.2% at A$3.52. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

1640 ET - The issue that drove Lynas Rare Earths's 2Q production miss looks to be a one-off to Ord Minnett. Lynas had intended to source all of its rare-earths output in December from mixed rare earth carbonate, or MREC, produced at its new Kalgoorlie plant in Australia. However, that plan was roiled by impurities in the MREC that required more treatment. Lynas didn't get chemicals to rectify the issue until Dec. 25. "We are surprised that sampling and prior trials had not revealed the impurities, but do not expect the problem to reoccur following process changes," analyst Matthew Hope says. Ord Minnett has a buy call on Lynas and A$7.80/share price target. Lynas ended last week at A$7.03.(david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

January 20, 2025 12:20 ET (17:20 GMT)

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