【地缘风险预期发生变化，集运欧线短期超预期反弹！】金十期货1月22日讯，近两日集运欧线短期快速超预期反弹。截止1月22日收盘，除近月EC2502，远月EC2512外，欧线运价涨幅均超12%。期价出现超预期的大幅上行态势，背后存在多方面因素，其中地缘风险预期的变化是推动此轮上行的主要因素。首先，从现货运价来看，马士基近两周欧线现舱报价的上调为期价上行提供了一定支撑。除上海港口外，2月我国多个港口运价小幅上涨25-50美元/FEU不等，现货运价呈现小幅反弹。其次，近期胡塞武装宣称将持续对以色列个人或实体全资拥有以及悬挂以色列国旗的船舶进行打击，这使得红海完全复航预期受阻，叠加内塔尼亚胡表示特朗普向其 “强调” 停火只是“暂时的”。这些因素共同作用下一定程度上刺激了市场的做多情绪。此外，资金面因素也不容忽视。空头获利离场叠加持仓量整体偏低构建了目前低位反弹的空间。展望后市，期价大概率会呈现宽幅震荡的走势。投资后续需重点关注加沙地区的停火状况以及船公司的相关动向，这些因素都可能对期价走势产生重要影响。从交易维度来看，海外地缘局势纷乱，国内临近节前，欧线宽幅震荡格局恐延续，建议节前减仓，或尝试做多旺季跨月价差。
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